Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Precognition - Science Says: NOPE

In 2011, A major scientific study supporting precognition was published by Daryl Bem:

Professor Daryl Bem of Cornell University is a well-respected psychologist. The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology is a well-respected journal, published by the American Psychological Association. It has a high impact factor and a high rejection rate for submissions. It is clearly one of the top journals in the field. It was not surprising, therefore, that when Bem last year published the results of a series of nine experiments appearing to suggest that precognition– or the ability to "feel the future" – is real, the story received a great deal of coverage from mainstream science media around the world. ("Precognition studies and the curse of the failed replications" by Chris French in The Guardian, March 15th, 2012) 
 
Here is the published article "Feeling the Future" by Daryl Bem:
 

In July of 2011, Eric Robinson published a paper "Not Feeling the Future" about his attempt to replicate one of Bem's experiments (Robinson failed to find evidence of "retroactive facilitation of recall" when he replicated Bem's experiment 9):
In March of 2012, an article was published about three different attempts to replicate one of Bem's experiments (experiment 9).  These experiments failed to show any significant evidence for precognition:
    Bem used a variety of techniques but the general approach was to "time reverse" established psychological effects. For example, the experiment that produced the largest effect size (experiment 9) took as its starting point the trivial observation that memory for words is better if one is allowed to rehearse the words as opposed to being exposed to them just once. Of course, this usually involves rehearsing the words before one's memory for them is tested.
    The astonishing claim made by Bem – apparently supported by his experimental data – was that memory for words is improved even if the rehearsal does not take place until after recall has been tested. The effect was dubbed the "retroactive facilitation of recall".
    To his credit, in his paper Bem encouraged other psychologists to attempt replications of his findings and even offered to provide appropriate software to run the studies. In collaboration with Stuart Ritchie at the University of Edinburgh, Professor Richard Wiseman at the University of Hertfordshire, and members of my own group at the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit at Goldsmiths, University of London, decided to do just that.
    It was agreed that a replication attempt would take place at each of the three institutions. All three attempts would follow the same procedures as those used by Bem, including using the same number of participants, and the experiments would be pre-registered. Regardless of outcome, we would write up our results and submit them for publication.
    As can be seen from our published report in PLoS ONE, none of us produced results that supported the effect reported by Bem (neither did Eric Robinson in a paper published in July 2011 in the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research). ("Precognition studies and the curse of the failed replications" by Chris French in The Guardian, March 15th, 2012)
Here is the article (about the three attempts to replicate Bem's experiment 9) published in PLoS ONE:


In October of 2015, a meta-analysis of 90 experiments supported Bem's original findings:
Here is the published article (this is a revised version of the paper that was published in January of 2016):


In 2023, a large and very rigorous study was published that focused on replications of Bem's Experiment 1, and this study found no evidence of precognition:

Here are the results of the above Transparent Psi Project study:
Here is a copy of the Transparent Psi Project study:


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