The Lousy Track Record of Psychics

PEOPLE CANNOT SEE THE FUTURE

There are at least two different kinds of evidence about whether precognition (the alleged supernatural ability to see the future) exists.  First, one can focus on individuals who claim to be psychics and who claim to see the future, to determine if some of them actually have the ability to see the future. Second, one can focus on people in general to determine if some or most people have some ability to see the future (by means of experiments about precognition).

In this series of posts about psychics, I will focus on the first sort of evidence.  Here are some of the most well-known psychics who have claimed to see the future:

• Nostradamus
• Edgar Cayce
• Jeane Dixon
• Baba Vanga
• Sylvia Browne
• Uri Geller

If these famous psychics do not have the ability to see the future, then that would be a good reason to conclude that nobody has the ability to see the future:

1. IF Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, Jeane Dixon, Baba Vanga, Sylvia Browne, and Uri Geller do not have the ability to see the future, THEN it is very likely that nobody has the ability to see the future.

2. Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, Jeane Dixon, Baba Vanga, Sylvia Browne, and Uri Geller do not have the ability to see the future.

THEREFORE:

3. It is very likely that nobody has the ability to see the future.

THE WIDE RANGE OF HUMAN ABILITIES

Human abilities almost always come in a wide range of levels or degrees.  For example, the ability to lift weights in a bench press comes in a wide range of levels:

A woman with no training in lifting weights might only be able to bench press about 80 pounds, while a man who is a competitive weight-lifting athlete with several years of training and experience might be able to bench press 360 pounds or more.  

Obviously, young children are not able to lift as much weight as adults. Furthermore, some people cannot lift any weight in a bench press because their arms are missing, severely damaged, or paralyzed.  The ability to lift weights in a bench press ranges from 0 pounds to 782 pounds (the current world record for bench press).[1]

The ability to run long distances also occurs in a wide range of levels or degrees: 

Most people can run half a mile without stopping. With a few weeks of consistent training, most people can run about two miles without stopping.  Trained athletes with years of training and experience in long-distance running can run for about 100 miles.  One long-distance athlete ran 450 miles in 4.5 days.

Some people cannot run any distance because their legs are missing, severely damaged, or paralyzed. Thus, the distance that people can run without stopping ranges from 0 miles to 450 miles. 

Human intellectual abilities also occur in a wide range of levels or degrees.  For example, the ability to read varies widely:

• 21% of adults in the U.S. have low literacy or are functionally illiterate. 
• 33% of adults in the U.S. are literate but read below a sixth-grade level. 
• 46% of adults in the U.S. read at or above a sixth-grade level. 

Furthermore, over 98% of young children (ages 1 to 5) cannot read:

There is also a significant range of ability to read and write among Americans who are literate, as can be seen by the range of scores achieved on standardized college-entrance exams.  

People who are not literate usually won't bother to take the SAT college-entrance exam, because they know they don't understand most of the questions on the SAT, so they have almost no chance of achieving even a modest score on the SAT.  Among the mostly literate students who take the SAT, there is a wide range of scores for the reading and writing portion of the exam:

A wide range of scores are acheived on the reading and writing portion of the SAT[2]:

• A score of 780 or higher puts one in the top 1% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 680 puts one in the top 10% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 630 puts one in the top 20% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 520 puts one in the top 50% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 490 puts one in the bottom 40% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 430 puts one in the bottom 20% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 390 puts one in the bottom 10% of SAT test takers.
• A score of 320 or less puts one in the bottom 1% of SAT test takers.

So, among mostly literate college-bound students in the U.S. there is a wide range of abilities in reading and writing, with SAT reading and writing scores that range from 200 (very poor) to 800 (excellent).

There are three-year-old children in the U.S. who cannot read or write a single word of English, and there are college-bound teenagers and young adults who score in the top 1% of the reading and writing portion of the SAT. Clearly, the range of the ability to read and write varies widely among humans. 

The sensory abilities of humans also include a wide range of levels or degrees.  For example, the sensory ability of vision varies widely among people.  The designation "20/20 Vision" refers to normal visual acuity:

The ability to see clearly varies widely among people:

A very small portion of people have better than 20/15 vision.[3]

There are, of course, various degrees of visual impairment among people who cannot achieve 20/20 vision even with prescription eyewear:

The ability to see varies from total blindness (no light perception), to legal blindness, to vision impairment (where 20/20 vision cannot be achieved even with prescription eyewear), to 20/20 vision achieved with eyewear, to 20/20 vision without eyewear, to 20/15 vision without eyewear, to 20/10 vision without eyewear.

The sensory ability of hearing also occurs in a wide range of levels or degrees among humans.[4]

PREMISE (1) OF MY SKEPTICAL ARGUMENT

Because human abilities almost always have a wide range of levels or degrees, we may infer a significant conclusion:

4. Human physical abilities almost always have a wide range of levels or degrees.

5. Human intellectual abilities almost always have a wide range of levels or degrees.

6. Human sensory abilities almost always have a wide range of levels or degrees.

THEREFORE:

7. IF people have the ability to see the future, THEN it is very likely that at least a few people will clearly have a strong ability to see the future.

This conclusion supports premise (1) of my skeptical argument, because we have good reason to believe that if humans have the ability to see the future, then there should be at least a few humans who have this ability to a high level or high degree, and thus there would be at least a few humans who would clearly have a strong ability to see the future. 

If there are at least a few people who clearly have a strong ability to see the future, then we would expect that such people would notice they have this ability and would tell others about it.  Such people would often claim to be psychics or seers or prophets. Therefore, it is reasonable to examine famous psychics who claim to see the future, to determine if they actually have the ability to see the future.  If famous psychics don't have this ability, then we may conclude that it is very likely that NOBODY has this ability.

The above is the thinking behind premise (1) of my skeptical argument:

1. If Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, Jeane Dixon, Baba Vanga, Sylvia Browne, and Uri Geller do not have the ability to see the future, then it is very likely that nobody has the ability to see the future.

In future posts on this topic, I will examine these six psychics to determine whether any of them have the ability to see the future (i.e. whether they have the supernatural ability known as precognition). Those future posts will provide support for premise (2) of my skeptical argument:

2. Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, Jeane Dixon, Baba Vanga, Sylvia Browne, and Uri Geller do not have the ability to see the future.

END NOTES

1. "The raw (unequipped) bench press world record is 355 kg (782.6 lbs), set by Julius Maddox on February 21, 2021." - Google AI response to "what is the world record for bench press" viewed 4/5/26. Here is a YouTube video about this world record: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezySzMd5unE&t=30s

2. Percentiles given here are based on this table:

3.  About 1% of people in the U.S. have better than 20/15 vision:

4.